The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak: a review of plausible scenarios of containment and mitigation for Mexico

Manuel Adrian Acuna-Zegarra; Andreu Comas-Garcia; Esteban Hernandez-Vargas; Mario Santana-Cibrian; Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez

• Behavioral change is one of the main forms to reduce contact rates [19] . However, when dealing with behavioral issues we enter into the psychological realm of individuals and groups of individuals. For our simulations we assume that education or awareness and rational decisions regarding the behavioral change associated with reducing contact rates is the same for asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals although there is some evidence that this might not be the case as one can directly witness. We assume different proportions of these two types of infected individuals. This is an open area of exploration that has not been pursued here. In any case, if asymptomatic individuals or any identifiable portion of the population have more "reckless behavior" on average than other individuals infected or not, then the expected incidence will be higher in any given scenario.