Are We in a De‐Globalization Process? The Evidence from Global Trade During 2007–2017

Li, Xiaomeng; Shen, Chen; Cai, Hongbo; Chen, Qinghua

Through the analysis of statistical data, some scholars believe that the globalization of trade is declining, and de‐globalization has become a trend, even since the financial crisis in 2008. However, the superficial decline of global trade volume cannot be taken as a corollary of the de‐globalization. It needs go deep into the structural analysis, and “globalization or de‐globalization” should be discussed by analyzing whether the global trade structure has changed. This paper finds that during 2007–2017, the global trade resistances are clearly classified, and trade resistance in the global community has increased significantly. Second, an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to divide global trade relations into two categories: intimate trade relations, whose barriers are mainly related to geographical distance; and unfriendly trade relations with high artificial barriers. Third, the trade purity indicator (TPI) is introduced to describe the trade environment of countries, and its evolution indicates after the financial crisis and for quite a long time, the structure of global trade has not changed much. And it shows some deterioration trend and structural adjustment after 2015, which indicates an opportunity for the emergence of de‐globalization in such an international environment full of uncertainty and challenges.