Mortality statistics in England and Wales: the SARS-CoV-2 paradox

Harrison, Gabrielle; Newport, Daniel; Robbins, Tim; Arvanitis, Theodoros N.; Stein, Andrew

OBJECTIVE: To analyse mortality statistics in the United Kingdom during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and to understand the impact of the pandemic on national mortality. METHODS: Retrospective review of weekly national mortality statistics in the United Kingdom over the past 5 years, including subgroup analysis of respiratory mortality rates. RESULTS: During the early phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the first months of 2020, there were consistently fewer deaths per week compared with the preceding 5 years. This pattern was not observed at any other time within the past 5 years. We have termed this phenomenon the “SARS-CoV-2 paradox.” We postulate potential explanations for this seeming paradox and explore the implications of these data. CONCLUSIONS: Paradoxically, but potentially importantly, lower rather than higher weekly mortality rates were observed during the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This paradox may have implications for current and future healthcare utilisation. A rebound increase in non-SARS-CoV-2 mortality later this year might coincide with the peak of SARS-CoV-2 admissions and mortality.