Adaptive cyclic exit strategies from lockdown to suppress COVID-19 and allow economic activity

Karin, Omer; Bar-On, Yinon M.; Milo, Tomer; Katzir, Itay; Mayo, Avi; Korem, Yael; Dudovich, Boaz; Yashiv, Eran; Zehavi, Amos J.; Davidovich, Nadav; Milo, Ron; Alon, Uri

Many countries have applied lockdown that helped suppress COVID-19, but with devastating economic consequences. Here we propose exit strategies from lockdown that provide sustainable, albeit reduced, economic activity. We use mathematical models to show that a cyclic schedule of 4-day work and 10-day lockdown, or similar variants, can prevent resurgence of the epidemic while providing part-time employment. The cycle pushes the reproduction number R below one by reduced exposure time and by exploiting the virus latent period: those infected during work days reach peak infectiousness during lockdown days. The number of work days can be adapted in response to observations. Throughout, full epidemiological measures need to continue including hygiene, physical distancing, compartmentalization, testing and contact tracing. This conceptual framework, when combined with other interventions to control the epidemic, can offer the beginnings of predictability to many economic sectors.