Selected article for: "average number and primary infected case"
Author: Tao Liu; Jianxiong Hu; Jianpeng Xiao; Guanhao He; Min Kang; Zuhua Rong; Lifeng Lin; Haojie Zhong; Qiong Huang; Aiping Deng; Weilin Zeng; Xiaohua Tan; Siqing Zeng; Zhihua Zhu; Jiansen Li; Dexin Gong; Donghua Wan; Shaowei Chen; Lingchuan Guo; Yan Li; Limei Sun; Wenjia Liang; Tie Song; Jianfeng He; Wenjun Ma
Title: Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China
  • Document date: 2020_1_26
    • ID: 3e2soc6w_13
    Snippet: In contrast to R0, time-varying instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) represents the average number of secondary cases that would be produced by a typical primary case infected at time t if conditions remained constant after time t (13) . We estimated Rt from the time series of onset cases, with the same Gamma distribution of generation time as R0. In order to maintain the accuracy of the prediction and without hiding the underlying time trend, .....
    Document: In contrast to R0, time-varying instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) represents the average number of secondary cases that would be produced by a typical primary case infected at time t if conditions remained constant after time t (13) . We estimated Rt from the time series of onset cases, with the same Gamma distribution of generation time as R0. In order to maintain the accuracy of the prediction and without hiding the underlying time trend, Rt values were estimated over a 10-day moving window. For the period of estimation, the end date was selected as the latest date of the available data, and the starting date was selected as the earliest date for which the 10-day instantaneous reproduction number estimated above could be assumed constant. We estimated Rt for all confirmed NCP cases nationwide, and in Wuhan, and for secondary NCP cases in Guangdong Province.

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