Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19

Huiwen Wang; Yanwen Zhang; Shan Lu; Shanshan Wang

The emergence of the first turning point is a very positive signal, indicating that the public health management measures have obviously taken effect and the epidemic has entered the "controlled period". However, due to the fact that the completion rate I t at this stage is still relatively low, the number of patients treated in the hospital will continue to increase. The controlled period will continue until the second turning point T 2 appears, that is, patients in hospital N t reaches the peak and starts to decline. This is because the completion rate increase so significantly that K t = I t is fulfilled after a long period of treatment in the previous stage. When the completion rate I t surpasses infection rate K t , the number of patients treated in the hospital began to decline from peak.