Author: Huiwen Wang; Yanwen Zhang; Shan Lu; Shanshan Wang
Title: Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: fyh8gjjl_88
Snippet: Focusing on the four meaningful mileposts, we put forward a simple and effective framework incorporating the effectiveness of the government control to forecast the whole process of a new unknown infectious disease in its early-outbreak. Specifically, we first propose a series of iconic indicators to characterize the extent of epidemic spread, and describe four periods of the whole process corresponding to the four meaningful milepost moments: tw.....
Document: Focusing on the four meaningful mileposts, we put forward a simple and effective framework incorporating the effectiveness of the government control to forecast the whole process of a new unknown infectious disease in its early-outbreak. Specifically, we first propose a series of iconic indicators to characterize the extent of epidemic spread, and describe four periods of the whole process corresponding to the four meaningful milepost moments: two turning points and two "zero" points; then we develop the proposed procedure with mild and reasonable assumption, especially without relying on an assumption of epidemiological parameters for disease progression.
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