Estimation and Distributed Eradication of SIR Epidemics on Networks

Zhang, Ciyuan; Leung, Humphrey; Butler, Brooks; Par'e, Philip. E.

This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set of healthy states exponentially. We propose a stochastic framework to estimate the system states from observed testing data and provide an analytic expression for the error of the estimation algorithm. Employing the estimated and the true system states, we provide two novel eradication strategies that guarantee at least exponential convergence to the set of healthy states. We illustrate the results via simulations over northern Indiana, USA.