Variance partitioning in spatio-temporal disease mapping models

Franco-Villoria, M.; Ventrucci, M.; Rue, H.

Bayesian disease mapping, yet if undeniably useful to describe variation in risk over time and space, comes with the hurdle of prior elicitation on hard-to-interpret precision parameters. We introduce a reparametrized version of the popular spatio-temporal interaction models, based on Kronecker product intrinsic Gaussian Markov Random Fields, that we name variance partitioning (VP) model. The VP model includes a mixing parameter that balances the contribution of the main and interaction effects to the total (generalized) variance and enhances interpretability. The use of a penalized complexity prior on the mixing parameter aids in coding any prior information in a intuitive way. We illustrate the advantages of the VP model on two case studies.