Should I stay or should I go? Embracing causal heterogeneity in the study of pandemic policy and citizen behavior

Barberia, Lorena G.; Claro Oliveira, Maria Leticia Junqueira Andrea Moreira Natália de Paula Whitten Guy D.

Objective Methods Results Conclusion To test for multicausality between government policy, health outcomes, economic performance, and citizen behavior during the COVID‐19 global pandemic.We perform Granger‐causality tests to explore the interrelationship between four endogenous variables, social distancing policy, home isolation, balance rate, and average weekly COVID‐19 deaths, in the 26 states of Brazil. As exogenous variables, we included a linear time trend and a dummy for the week in which the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID‐19 a global pandemic.Our analysis of Granger causal ordering between the four variables demonstrates that there is significant heterogeneity across the Brazilian federation. These findings can be interpreted as underscoring that there is no common model applicable to all states, and that the dynamics are context‐dependent.Our suggested approach allows researchers to account for the complex interrelationship between government policy, citizen behavior, the economy, and COVID‐related health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Social Science Quarterly (Wiley-Blackwell) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)