Author: CESAR BORDEHORE; Miriam Navarro; Zaida Herrador; Eva S. Fonfria
Title: Understanding COVID-19 spreading through simulation modeling and scenarios comparison: preliminary results. Document date: 2020_4_1
ID: ib0cofa4_130
Snippet: Although the model has limitations, since it is a simplification of the reality, the results of the calibrated model ( Figure 3 ) fits quite well with the official data of infected people with COVID-10 in Spain until 24 March. Until today, it is difficult to obtain the most probable R0 after 14 March because of the time lag of detected patients due to the incubation period (set at 6 days). Therefore, further time is needed to quantify the effect .....
Document: Although the model has limitations, since it is a simplification of the reality, the results of the calibrated model ( Figure 3 ) fits quite well with the official data of infected people with COVID-10 in Spain until 24 March. Until today, it is difficult to obtain the most probable R0 after 14 March because of the time lag of detected patients due to the incubation period (set at 6 days). Therefore, further time is needed to quantify the effect of mitigation measures in the R0 reduction.
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