Risk analysis and hot spots detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Nigeria using demographic and environmental variables: an early assessment of transmission dynamics.

Ameh Yaro, Clement; Udama Eneche, Patrick Samson; Abu Anyebe, Daniel

This study evaluated the effect of demographic and environmental variables on the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Nigeria. Daily data on confirmed cases on SARS-CoV-2 were obtained, data layers for environmental and demographic factors were acquired. Using epidemiological, environmental and demographic datasets obtained, the MaxEnt tool was used to identify the risk areas of SARS-CoV-2 while Getis-Ord Gi* statistics on ArcMap 10.7 was used to identify hotspots for SARS-CoV-2. Southern Nigeria and some states in North-West, North-East and North-Central fell within the high risk and hotspots zone for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Literacy level, dependency ratio, population density, age structure, temperature and precipitation were factors that significantly influenced the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nigeria. SARS-CoV-2 infection had a higher in the Southern than in Northern Nigeria. There is need for the application of an integrative approach to curb the virus.