Author: Markus Mueller; Peter Derlet; Christopher Mudry; Gabriel Aeppli
Title: Using random testing to manage a safe exit from the COVID-19 lockdown Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: loi1vs5y_4
Snippet: Daily random testing reduces the delay between changes in policy and the observation of their effects very significantly. Moreover, it directly measures the key quantity of interest, namely the fraction of currently infected people and its growth rate, information that is very valuable to gauge further interventions. Such information is much harder to infer from data about positively tested patients only, by fitting it to specific epidemiological.....
Document: Daily random testing reduces the delay between changes in policy and the observation of their effects very significantly. Moreover, it directly measures the key quantity of interest, namely the fraction of currently infected people and its growth rate, information that is very valuable to gauge further interventions. Such information is much harder to infer from data about positively tested patients only, by fitting it to specific epidemiological models with their inherent uncertainties. The shortened time delay due to feedback and control allows a reboot to be attempted at much higher levels of infections, i * > i * * , which implies a much shorter time in lockdown.
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