Complex scenarios with competing factors: A conception paper applied to the COVID-19 case

Brandão, Mauricio Pazini

A theory to analyze complex scenarios facing threats with competing factors and limited resources has been introduced. The scenarios are modeled as closed systems. Hamilton’s principle of stationary action is used to conceive a theory in which competing factors dispute available resources to minimize undesirable outcomes. The result indicates that the minimum response is obtained by a combination of the competing factors weighted by their corresponding criticalities. The theory has been applied to the COVID-19 pandemic with two competing factors: Health and Economy. As main result, to minimize the total number of deaths, the recommendation is to balance the emphasis on both factors. This implies to give more emphasis to the economic factor, by avoiding restrict interventions like lockdowns and business closures. The model may evolve from a qualitative to a quantitative status, allowing for computational simulations aimed at validations and forecasting. As such, this approach may become a useful tool for strategic decision-making regarding resources allocations to reduce guessing in scenarios full of uncertainties.