Author: Lucas Böttcher; Mingtao Xia; Tom Chou
Title: Why estimating population-based case fatality rates during epidemics may be misleading Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: embnko1q_9
Snippet: We use the same estimates for the rate parameters in our individual and population models to compute the different mortality ratios. Note that in general, both the individual mortality probability M 1 (t) and the population-based estimates M p (t) depend on the time of measurement t. By critically analyzing these estimates and another ad hoc "delayed" ratio CFR d , we illustrate and interpret the differences among these measures and discuss how c.....
Document: We use the same estimates for the rate parameters in our individual and population models to compute the different mortality ratios. Note that in general, both the individual mortality probability M 1 (t) and the population-based estimates M p (t) depend on the time of measurement t. By critically analyzing these estimates and another ad hoc "delayed" ratio CFR d , we illustrate and interpret the differences among these measures and discuss how changes or uncertainty in the data affect them. In section III, we summarize our results and identify a correction factor to transform population-level mortality estimates into individual mortality probabilities.
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