COVID-19 Epidemic Prediction Model and Prevention and Control Analysis

Fu, Shaohua Xiong Youwei Yi Linfeng

COVID-19 infection was found in Wuhan area in early 2020. Because of the Data backlog in the initial period of Hubei province, it was not conducive to accurate establishment of the model. This article selected the number of diagnosed people in 40 districts and counties of Chongqing City near Hubei province for analysis and modeling. And the prediction model is divided into three stages. The first stage is the initial stage of prevention and control, and the virus transmission shows an exponential model growth. The second stage is the development period of prevention and control, the virus transmission shows a fluctuating state. In the third stage, which is in the mature stage of prevention and control, the virus spreads as a linear function. At the same time, the data curve of three stages and the reasons for its formation are analyzed. The laws revealed by this model have a certain theoretical basis for the prevention and control of new infectious diseases such as coronary pneumonia, which will have a certain guiding effect on the prevention and control of viruses in newly discovered countries and regions of the epidemic.