Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data

Alleman, Tijs W.; Vergeynst, Jenna; De Visscher, Lander; Rollier, Michiel; Torfs, Elena; Nopens, Ingmar; Baetens, Jan M.

We present a compartmental extended SEIQRD metapopulation model for SARS-CoV-2 spread in Belgium. We demonstrate the robustness of the calibration procedure by calibrating the model using incrementally larger datasets and dissect the model results by computing the effective reproduction number at home, in workplaces, in schools, and during leisure activities. We find that schools are an important transmission pathway for SARS-CoV-2, with the potential to increase the effective reproduction number from [Formula: see text] (95 % CI) to [Formula: see text] (95 % CI) under lockdown measures. The model accounts for the main characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease and features a detailed representation of hospitals with parameters derived from a dataset consisting of 22 136 hospitalized patients. Social contact during the pandemic is modeled by scaling pre-pandemic contact matrices with Google Community Mobility data and with effectivity-of-contact parameters inferred from hospitalization data. The calibrated social contact model with its publically available mobility data, although coarse-grained, is a readily available alternative to social-epidemiological contact studies under lockdown measures, which were not available at the start of the pandemic.