Selected article for: "modelling study and reproduction number"

Author: Saha, S.
Title: The impact of the undetected COVID-19 cases on its transmission dynamics
  • Cord-id: pxud7l9z
  • Document date: 2020_6_3
  • ID: pxud7l9z
    Snippet: Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic is currently ongoing. Presently, due to the unavailability of a definitive vaccine to decrease its acquiring, it is essential to understand its transmissibility in the community by undetected cases to control its transmission. This study aims to study this context using mathematical modelling. Methods: A COVID-19 transmission model was framed that estimated the basic reproduction number (R_0, a measurement of disease risk) using the next-generation method. It exp
    Document: Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic is currently ongoing. Presently, due to the unavailability of a definitive vaccine to decrease its acquiring, it is essential to understand its transmissibility in the community by undetected cases to control its transmission. This study aims to study this context using mathematical modelling. Methods: A COVID-19 transmission model was framed that estimated the basic reproduction number (R_0, a measurement of disease risk) using the next-generation method. It explored the contribution of exposed and infected (detected and undetected) individuals, and environmental pathogen to the overall risk of infection spreading, utilizing the publicly reported data of this infection in Maharashtra between March 22, 2020, and May 4, 2020. A sensitivity analysis was performed to study the effect of a rising number of undetected cases to R_0. Results: The estimated basic reproduction number is R_0=4.63, which increases rapidly with the rise in the undetected COVID-19 cases. Although the exposed individuals made the largest contribution to infection transmission (R_1=2.42), the contaminated environment also played a significant role. Conclusions: It is crucial to identify the individuals exposed and infected to COVID-19 disease and isolate them to control its transmission. The awareness of the role of fomites in infection transmission is also important in this regard.

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents
    • actual value and acute respiratory syndrome: 1
    • actual value and acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus: 1
    • acute respiratory and additional symptom: 1, 2, 3
    • acute respiratory and live community: 1
    • acute respiratory and local outbreak: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • acute respiratory and lockdown implementation: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
    • acute respiratory and lung infiltration: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • acute respiratory syndrome and additional symptom: 1, 2, 3
    • acute respiratory syndrome and live community: 1
    • acute respiratory syndrome and local outbreak: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • acute respiratory syndrome and lockdown implementation: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13
    • acute respiratory syndrome and lung infiltration: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and additional symptom: 1, 2, 3
    • acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and live community: 1
    • acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and local outbreak: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and lockdown implementation: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13
    • acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and lung infiltration: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25