Linking Outdoor Air Temperature and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the US Using a Two Parameter Transmission Model

Newell, T.

Outdoor temperature lower than 50F and greater than 70F is shown to nearly double the transmission efficiency of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Outdoor temperature is an important factor behind the current surge in US Covid-19 cases. Correlation of northern state infection data and outdoor temperatures is used to identify the change in disease transmission efficiency as northern states passed through the lower temperature bound (50F) in spring, and more recently transitioned to temperatures above the higher bound (70F). At current disease transmission efficiency levels, social distancing must be increased above a UMD Social Distance Index (SDI) level of 36 to stop the accelerated increase of daily infection cases. At current disease transmission efficiency (G=0.19) and SDI of 33, the US will approach 150,000 infections per day in September before declining as average US temperature falls below 70F. A primary reason for enhanced disease transmission below 50F and above 70F is attributed to inadequate indoor ventilation. Swing season occurs when outdoor temperatures are between 50F and 70F, and is the time of year when homes and buildings are opened to the outdoors. Increased fresh air ventilation (greater than 40cfm per person), improved air filtration (MERV11 and greater filters), and UVGI (Ultraviolet Germicidal Irradiation, 0.02WUV per cfm airflow) coupled with wearing face masks, 6ft distancing and surface sanitation are estimated to reduce indoor disease transmission probability to a third of the transmission probability resulting from standard building ventilation practice.