Author: Fook Hou Lee
Title: A Heuristic Model for Spreading of COVID 19 in Singapore Document date: 2020_4_18
ID: 6l7igbmx_57
Snippet: Based on this, one can surmise that the infected person is likely to highly contagious within the first 3 days of onset of symptoms. Some transmission may occur during the asymptomatic period but does not appear to be as significant. It is also likely that after the first 3 days, he would have sought medical attention and would likely have been detected. Hence, it is postulated herein that an average estimate of the infectious period n ~ 4 to 5 d.....
Document: Based on this, one can surmise that the infected person is likely to highly contagious within the first 3 days of onset of symptoms. Some transmission may occur during the asymptomatic period but does not appear to be as significant. It is also likely that after the first 3 days, he would have sought medical attention and would likely have been detected. Hence, it is postulated herein that an average estimate of the infectious period n ~ 4 to 5 days. Together with the upper bound value of R0 of 6.6, this would imply r ~ 1.3 -~1.7. However, this is an average figure; for special social setting, r may be much higher.
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