Author: Yuan, William; Beaulieu-Jones, Brett K.; Yu, Kun-Hsing; Lipnick, Scott L.; Palmer, Nathan; Loscalzo, Joseph; Cai, Tianxi; Kohane, Isaac S.
Title: Temporal bias in case-control design: preventing reliable predictions of the future Cord-id: eicf1511 Document date: 2021_2_17
ID: eicf1511
Snippet: One of the primary tools that researchers use to predict risk is the case-control study. We identify a flaw, temporal bias, that is specific to and uniquely associated with these studies that occurs when the study period is not representative of the data that clinicians have during the diagnostic process. Temporal bias acts to undermine the validity of predictions by over-emphasizing features close to the outcome of interest. We examine the impact of temporal bias across the medical literature,
Document: One of the primary tools that researchers use to predict risk is the case-control study. We identify a flaw, temporal bias, that is specific to and uniquely associated with these studies that occurs when the study period is not representative of the data that clinicians have during the diagnostic process. Temporal bias acts to undermine the validity of predictions by over-emphasizing features close to the outcome of interest. We examine the impact of temporal bias across the medical literature, and highlight examples of exaggerated effect sizes, false-negative predictions, and replication failure. Given the ubiquity and practical advantages of case-control studies, we discuss strategies for estimating the influence of and preventing temporal bias where it exists.
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