A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19

Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gómez; Clara Granell; Joan T. Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger

The rationale of the model is the following. Susceptible individuals get infected by contacts with asymptomatic and infected agents, with a probability Πg i , becoming exposed. Exposed individuals turn into asymptomatic at a certain rate η g , which in turn become infected at a rate α g . Once infected, two paths emerge, which are reached at an escape rate µ g . The first option is requiring hospitalization in an ICU, with a certain probability γ g ; otherwise, the individuals become recovered. While being at ICU, individuals have a death probability ω g , which is reached at a rate ψ g . Finally, ICUs discharge at a rate χ g , leading to the recovered compartment. See Table I for a summary of the parameters of the model, and their values to simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in Spain, which will be discussed in Subsec. IV A.