Impacto de la COVID-19 en la mortalidad de la comunidad autónoma de Castilla y León

Sangrador, Carlos Ochoa; Ramón Garmendia Leiza, José; Boillos, María José Pérez; Ara, Fernando Pastrana; Lobato, María del Pilar Lorenzo; de Llano, Jesús María Andrés

ABSTRACT Objective: To estimate the increase in mortality associated with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in the autonomous community of Castilla y León (Spain). Method: Ecological study based on population and death data for the months of March 2016 to 2020 in Castilla y León. The general and provincial standardized rates, the relative risks of the year 2020 with respect to previous years and the risks adjusted by sex, periods and province, using Poisson regression, were calculated. Trend analysis was performed using joinpoint linear regression. Results: An increase in mortality was observed in March 2020 with respect to previous years, with an increase of 39% for men (relative risk [RR]: 1.39; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.32-1.47) and 28% for women (RR: 1.28; 95%CI: 1.21-1.35). The model predicts excess mortality of 775 deaths. In the trend analysis there is a significant turning point in 2019 in men, globally and for almost all provinces. The increase in mortality is general, although heterogeneous by sex, age group and province. Conclusions: Although the observed increase in mortality cannot be totally attributed to the disease, it is the best estimate we have of the real impact on deaths directly or indirectly related to it. The number of declared deaths only reaches two thirds of the increase in mortality observed.