Author: Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gómez; Clara Granell; Joan T. Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger
Title: A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19 Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: knt1f78p_9
Snippet: We propose a tailored model for the epidemic spread of COVID-19. We use a previous framework for the study of epidemics in structured metapopulations, with heterogeneous agents, subjected to recurrent mobility patterns [18] [19] [20] 31] .To understand the geographical diffusion of the disease, as a result of human-human interactions in small geographical patches, one has to combine the contagion process with the long-range disease propagation du.....
Document: We propose a tailored model for the epidemic spread of COVID-19. We use a previous framework for the study of epidemics in structured metapopulations, with heterogeneous agents, subjected to recurrent mobility patterns [18] [19] [20] 31] .To understand the geographical diffusion of the disease, as a result of human-human interactions in small geographical patches, one has to combine the contagion process with the long-range disease propagation due to human mobility across different spatial scales. For the case of epidemic modeling, the metapopulation scenario is as follows. A population is distributed in a set of patches, being the size (number of individuals) of each patch in principle different. The individuals within each patch are well-mixed, i.e., pathogens can be transmitted from an infected host to any of the healthy agents placed in the same patch with the same probability. The second aspect of our metapopulation model concerns the mobility of agents. Each host is allowed to change its current location and occupy another patch, thus fostering the spread of pathogens at the system level. Mobility of agents between different patches is usually represented in terms of a network where nodes are locations while a link between two patches represents the possibility of moving between them.
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