A model to estimate bed demand for COVID-19 related hospitalization

Teng Zhang; Kelly McFarlane; Jacqueline Vallon; Linying Yang; Jin Xie; Jose Blanchet; Peter Glynn; Kristan Staudenmayer; Kevin Schulman; David Scheinker

We developed a model to facilitate hospital planning with estimates of the number of Intensive Care (IC) beds, Acute Care (AC) beds, and ventilators necessary to accommodate patients who require hospitalization for COVID-19 and how these compare to the available resources. We deployed this model as an interactive online tool. 6 Inputs to the model include estimates of the characteristics of the patient population and hospital capacity. The patient population inputs are the starting population of COVID-19-patients, COVID-19+ patients, and the estimated doubling time for total COVID-19 admissions (i.e. how many days it will take for the number of total admissions at the institution to double). For the patient cohorts, we estimated what percentage of the COVID-19+ patient population would follow 5 potential trajectories through the hospital, assuming various combinations of patient flow between IC and AC. Until more reliable data are available, estimates for input values are generated through review of existing data and discussion with experts. 7, 8 The model will be updated as data become available.