Author: Johannes Opsahl Ferstad; Angela Jessica Gu; Raymond Ye Lee; Isha Thapa; Andrew Y Shin; Joshua A Salomon; Peter Glynn; Nigam H Shah; Arnold Milstein; Kevin Schulman; David Scheinker
Title: A model to forecast regional demand for COVID-19 related hospital beds Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: jjtsd4n3_7
Snippet: As expected, the model predicts US counties with large, older populations are likely to have the highest demand for hospital beds. Counties with a high number of confirmed cases are likely to be first to see the demand for beds exceed hospital bed availability. Furthermore, smaller counties with relatively few hospital beds are likely to see the demand for beds exceed hospital bed availability at lower fractions of the population being COVID-19+ .....
Document: As expected, the model predicts US counties with large, older populations are likely to have the highest demand for hospital beds. Counties with a high number of confirmed cases are likely to be first to see the demand for beds exceed hospital bed availability. Furthermore, smaller counties with relatively few hospital beds are likely to see the demand for beds exceed hospital bed availability at lower fractions of the population being COVID-19+ (see Table 1 ). Local leaders in these vulnerable communities should pay particular attention to the case growth rate if they seek to tailor their response rapidly to predicted downstream resource constraints.
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