Author: Romney B. Duffey; Enrico Zio
Title: Analysing recovery from pandemics by Learning Theory: the case of CoVid-19 Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: mh7mzuoe_4
Snippet: The theory shows the Learning Hypothesis that humans learn from their mistakes and reduce outcomes in such a way that the rate of decrease of the outcome (in the present case of interest, the infection rate, R) with the rate of accumulated experience, ε, (in the present case the advancement in the knowledge of the virus, the contagion spreading dynamics, the effects of the countermeasures) is proportional to the rate R itself. Thus, very simply,.....
Document: The theory shows the Learning Hypothesis that humans learn from their mistakes and reduce outcomes in such a way that the rate of decrease of the outcome (in the present case of interest, the infection rate, R) with the rate of accumulated experience, ε, (in the present case the advancement in the knowledge of the virus, the contagion spreading dynamics, the effects of the countermeasures) is proportional to the rate R itself. Thus, very simply, the differential equation that describes the accident and outcome data with learning or forgetting describes the proportionality between the rate of change of the learning rate, R, and the learning rate itself (Duffey and Saull, 2008; Duffey, 2017b) :
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