Evaluating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 on a global scale

Esra, R. T.; Jamesion, L.; Fox, M. P.; Letswalo, D.; Ngcobo, N.; Mngadi, S.; Estill, J. G.; Meyer-Rath, G.; Keiser, O.

In the absence of a viable pharmaceutical intervention for SARS-CoV-2, governments have implemented a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to curb the spread of infection of the virus and the disease caused by the virus, now known as COVID-19. Given the associated social and economic costs, it is critical to enumerate the individual impacts of NPIs to aid in decision-making moving forward. We used globally reported SARS-CoV-2 cases to fit a Bayesian model framework to estimate transmission associated with NPIs in 26 countries and 34 US states. Using a mixed effects model with country level random effects, we compared the relative impact of other NPIs to national-level household confinement measures and evaluated the impact of NPIs on the global trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic over time. We observed heterogeneous impacts of the easing of restrictions and estimated an overall reduction in infection of 23% (95% CI: 18-27%) associated with household confinement, 10% (95% CI: 1-18%) with limits on gatherings, 12% (95% CI: 5-19%) with school closures and 17% (95% CI: 6-28%) with mask policies. We estimated a 12% (95% CI: 9-15%) reduction in transmission associated with NPIs overall. The implementation of NPIs have substantially reduced acceleration of COVID-19. At this early time point, we cannot determine the impact of the easing of restrictions and there is a need for continual assessment of context specific effectiveness of NPIs as more data become available.