Gaussian Statistics and Data-Assimilated Model of Mortality due to COVID-19: China, USA, Italy, Spain, UK, Iran, and the World Total

Lee, T.-W.; Park, J. E.; Hung, David

Covid-19 is characterized by rapid transmission and severe symptoms, leading to deaths in some cases (ranging from 1.5 to 12% of the affected, depending on the country). We identify the Gaussian nature of mortality due to covid-19, as shown in China where it appears to have run its course (during the first sweep of the pandemic at least) and other coutnries, and also in Imperial College modeling. Gaussian distribution involves three parameters, the height, peak location and the width, and the streaming data can be used to infer function value, slope and inflection location as a minimum set of constraints to estimate the subsequent trajectories. Thus, we apply the Gaussian function template as the basis for a data-assimilated model of covid-19 trajectories, first to USA, United Kingdom (UK), Iran and the world total in this study. As more data become available, the Gaussian trajectories are updated, for other nations and also for state-by-state projections in USA.