A simple method to quantify country-specific effects of COVID-19 containment measures

Morten Gram Pedersen; Matteo Meneghini

Interestingly the regions that have lowered the growth rate to zero have imposed relatively mild restrictions. In New South Wales schools are not closed, but parents were invited to keep their children at home on March 23, 2020. This date coincides almost perfectly with our estimated date-of-change, suggesting that this invitation has been followed, and has had immediate effect. Indirect effects likely contribute: keeping children at home often means that their parent will work from home, and in addition, the increased awareness of the situation following such an invitation may have wider, general effects, as might be expected to have occurred in N.S.W. Similarly, B.C. has not imposed lockdown, although schools were closed on March 18, 2020 (in agreement with our estimated date-of-change) and restaurants are only allowed to sell take-away food.