A Tool to Early Predict Severe 2019-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (COVID-19) : A Multicenter Study using the Risk Nomogram in Wuhan and Guangdong, China

Jiao Gong; Jingyi Ou; Xueping Qiu; Yusheng Jie; Yaqiong Chen; Lianxiong Yuan; Jing Cao; Mingkai Tan; Wenxiong Xu; Fang Zheng; Yaling Shi; Bo Hu

At present, an early warning model for predicting COVID-19 patients at-risk of developing a costly condition is scarce 3, 6 . So far, prognosis factors of COVID-19 mainly focus on the immune cells. In our study, we found that older age, higher lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and C-reactive protein (CRP), RDW (the coefficient of variation of red blood cell distribution width), DBIL (direct bilirubin), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and lower albumin (ALB) on admission correlated with higher odds of severe COVID-19. Based on these indexes, we developed and validated an effective prognostic nomogram with high sensitivity and specificity for accurate individualized assessment of the incidence of severe COVID-19. Among these indexes, the prognostic role of RDW in COVID-19 is underestimated, which is associated with the increased turnover of erythrocytes. Our results hinted that the turnover of RBC might involve in severe illness.