The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] for MERS-CoV in South Korea

Jeong, Darae; Lee, Chang Hyeong; Choi, Yongho; Kim, Junseok

In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters [Formula: see text] (contact rate) and [Formula: see text] (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler’s method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In [Formula: see text] , the parameters [Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] , and [Formula: see text] denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.