ACP risk grade: a simple mortality index for patients with confirmed or suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 disease (COVID-19) during the early stage of outbreak in Wuhan, China

Jiatao Lu; Shufang Hu; Rong Fan; Zhihong Liu; Xueru Yin; Qiongya Wang; Qingquan Lv; Zhifang Cai; Haijun Li; Yuhai Hu; Ying Han; Hongping Hu; Wenyong Gao; Shibo Feng; Qiongfang Liu; Hui Li; Jian Sun; Jie Peng; Xuefeng Yi; Zixiao Zhou; Yabing Guo; Jinlin Hou

After the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019, an increasing number of confirmed cases were identified over time worldwide. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] As of February 19, 2020, 74 576 confirmed cases with 2118 deaths were reported in China. 6 Based on the reported clinical characteristics of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, the overall mortality ranges from 2% to 5%, which can be even higher in the elders with severe complications. 1, 7, 8 The Chinese government responded immediately and mobilized the whole country's health resources to deal with this public health emergency. However, according to the data released at February 19, 2020, the number of confirmed cases in the city of Wuhan accounts for nearly two-thirds of the entire country while the number of deaths accounts for three-quarters of the whole country, and the mortality reached a peak of over 7% at the early stage. Wuhan city, as the epidemic area, is bearing enormous public health as well as medical burdens, and the epidemic condition of the city will robustly impact on the trends of COVID-19 epidemics nation-wide as well as worldwide. Thus, an efficient and timely triage of COVID-19 patients with high mortality risk is crucial for relieving the public health burden.