An SEIR Model for Assessment of Current COVID-19 Pandemic Situation in the UK

Peiliang SUN; Kang Li

As presented in the previous section, although the severe case ratio λ H and the infection fatality ratio κ cannot be accurately obtained, our model produces some consistent estimates on the total death toll if community spread is greatly suppressed after 23 March. If the UK government continues the current lockdown strategy to the end of June, the estimated total death number is about 21000 (if the reproduction ratio is suppressed to 0.2). Figure 7 and Figure 8 illustrate the total number of deaths and infections to the end of April if the reproduction ratio is controlled to be less than 0.2 after the lockdown, and assume the severe case ratio λ H = 4%, infection fatality ratio (IFR) κ = 2%, and the 5 https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/covid-19-hospital-admissions-flattening/7027364.article 5 . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. Figure 10 : Daily increase in hospital treatment maximum imported cases E max import = 2100. These figures suggest that about 1 million people would be infected, and 81.2% of infected people will be recovered by the end of April in this scenario.