Selected article for: "age group and model age group"
Author: Julien Riou; Anthony Hauser; Michel J Counotte; Christian L Althaus
Title: Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020
  • Document date: 2020_3_6
    • ID: mrsya6wz_18
    Snippet: Our model accurately describes the dynamics of transmission and mortality by age group during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Hubei from 1 January to 11 February 2020 ( Figure 2 ). The model predicts that control measures implemented from 20 January reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility by 99% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 97-100), with a steep diminution in case incidence after six days. The model estimates that a total of 82,300 individuals (95%CrI: 7.....
    Document: Our model accurately describes the dynamics of transmission and mortality by age group during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Hubei from 1 January to 11 February 2020 ( Figure 2 ). The model predicts that control measures implemented from 20 January reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility by 99% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 97-100), with a steep diminution in case incidence after six days. The model estimates that a total of 82,300 individuals (95%CrI: 73,000-91,800) were infected in Hubei between 1 January and 11 February 2020. Of these, the number of symptomatic cases is estimated at 67,500 (95%CrI: 59,900-74,800), 1.6 times (95%CrI: 1.5-1.8) more than the 41,092 reported cases during that period. The proportion of ascertained cases showed a clear age trend, from less than 10% under 20 years old to 93% (95%CrI: 87-99) in the age group 70-79 (it was assumed that the ascertainment proportion was 100% in the age group 80+, S1 Text section 4.

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