Author: Houssein H. Ayoub; Hiam Chemaitelly; Shaheen Seedat; Ghina R. Mumtaz; Monia Makhoul; Laith J Abu-Raddad
Title: Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 9huyb4cs_30
Snippet: Our study may have overestimated disease mortality by basing mortality rates on estimates of crude case fatality rate in China, as suggested by a recent study [13] . Our results are based on the most probable value for 0 R as estimated through 500 runs of uncertainty analysis. The latter may have biased our reported results towards lower 0 R . For instance, the most probable value for 0 R in China was 1.95, but the point estimate assuming the bas.....
Document: Our study may have overestimated disease mortality by basing mortality rates on estimates of crude case fatality rate in China, as suggested by a recent study [13] . Our results are based on the most probable value for 0 R as estimated through 500 runs of uncertainty analysis. The latter may have biased our reported results towards lower 0 R . For instance, the most probable value for 0 R in China was 1.95, but the point estimate assuming the baseline values of the input parameters was higher at 2.10 [4] . Despite these limitations, our parsimonious model, tailored to the nature of available data, was able to reproduce the epidemic as observed in China [4] , and generated results that are valid to a wide range of model assumptions.
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