Analysing and comparing the COVID-19 data: The closed cases of Hubei and South Korea, the dark March in Europe, the beginning of the outbreak in South America

Stefano De Leo; Gabriel Gulak Maia; Leonardo Solidoro

Figs. 4(a-c) give the time evolution of the fitting parameters of Eq. (2) for Hubei for the Total Confirmed and Recovered Cases (TCC and TRC), as well as the fitting curve for TCCpM in (d). From Figs. 4(a-c) we can see that the TCCpM parameters have already stabilised, while the recovery parameters stopped oscillating and are developing in a linear fashion. This is expected as the number of recoveries is still growing. The stability point of the TRC parameters, however, is not expected to be the same as the TCCpM, the difference being accounted by the death cases. Fig. 4(a) , however, shows that the amplitude of both cases will become constant at close values, indicating a relatively low mortality rate. In Fig. (b) , the difference between the two curves indicates the mean time between contagion and healing, almost 20 days.