An agent-based epidemic model REINA for COVID-19 to identify destructive policies

Jouni T Tuomisto; Juha Yrjölä; Mikko Kolehmainen; Juhani Bonsdorff; Jami Pekkanen; Tero Tikkanen

The agents represent individual people, who have the following properties: age (years), infected (yes/no), infection detected (yes/no), immunity (yes/no), days of incubation period left (d), days of illness since the onset of symptoms (d), other people infected (identifiers of agents that this agent infected; used for tracing), state, and symptom severity. The possible states of a person are the following: susceptible, incubation (infected but actual illness not yet started; may spread virus), illness, hospitalized, in intensive care, recovered (i.e., immune), and dead ( Figure 1 ). The symptom severity of a patient can be asymptomatic, mild, severe, or critical. The model follows every individual through the whole disease path from susceptible to recovery or death.