An SEIR Model for Assessment of Current COVID-19 Pandemic Situation in the UK

Peiliang SUN; Kang Li

However the death toll might be higher if the lockdown rules are not strictly obeyed by people unless improved medical treatment is available in the forthcoming weeks. On the other hand, a long period of lockdown may damage the economy to an unacceptable extent, and the wishes to lift the lockdown measure as early as possible may grow with time. Figure 9 and Figure 10 show different curves representing possible daily increase in death toll and daily increase in hospital treatment requirements under different reproduction rates. Clearly if the reproduction rate is suppressed below 1, both numbers will keep decreasing. However even the viral transmission is managed to the minimum, the daily death toll will still likely keep at a high level (>500) for two weeks. Based on the current data 6 in the UK, our model also projects that the inflection point of current pandemic wave in the UK is likely to occur in the following week (between 12-15 April 2020) if the lockdown rules are strictly obeyed by people.