Analysing recovery from pandemics by Learning Theory: the case of CoVid-19

Romney B. Duffey; Enrico Zio

Independent of the transmission mechanism, given contact, the probability of crossinfection, then, depends solely on the total numbers of the possibly equally risk-or infection-exposed recipient population, and the probability of infection is also random. In this model, anyone can get it by interacting with someone that has it2. To help see this more clearly, the black balls (the "unknowns") emerging from the Jar of Life is one way to view what might happen based on what we have already seen or been exposed to. Here the one black ball (n=1) is an "known unknown" infected person or infection opportunity among those ten (m=10) non-infected ("known knowns") white balls (m=10), so a chance of 10% or one over ten. The probability of interest is, then, of infection for more people exposed and infected, or N "unknown unknowns", and some not exposed or not successfully infected, M "unknown knowns") , out of a total of all exposed people, N+M.