Analysing recovery from pandemics by Learning Theory: the case of CoVid-19

Romney B. Duffey; Enrico Zio

A word of caution is necessary, however, these numbers cannot be exact and are not meant to be exact. These are just calculated risk estimates, which are subject to uncertainty related to all the many endogenous factors related to the virus spreading, and the actuation and respect of the measures implemented. The numbers provide guidance to thinking about the absolute risk and the best approach to take given the risk is constant unless we do nothing to reduce it! The strong message here is that the rational and logical approach to dealing with the risk of the occurring pandemic (as with any other risk, for that matter) is to limit own personal and potential exposure, and to minimize both the size and scale of the potentially exposed population. This is precisely what governments and contagious disease experts have been saying all along-but is also what any individual should be doing anyway while exposed to the risks of "normal" life. A sort of ethics of resilience (B. Rajaonah and E. Zio, 2020).