Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend;A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread

Muhammad Qasim; Waqas Ahmad; Minami Yoshida; Maree Gould; Muhammad Yasir

By using this mathematical model we also forecast the probable spread of COVID-19 in countries that were initially affected and calculate the expected size of cases in their cities which reported with high incidence of COVID-19 cases and deaths (supplementary file 1). The predicted number of cases and deaths reflects the potential impact of the various social and personal non-pharmaceutical interventions that have been progressively and quickly implemented in January 2020. We calculated the lower bound limit for each respective country and their capital cities. In order to evaluate the various countries strategies to contain COVID-19 to present a model for other counties to formulate their policies to address the pandemic, we plotted the trend of pandemic for China, Japan, South Korea and Iran. We consider these countries as representative of countries with high, medium and low medical health security systems according to their ranking by the Global Health Security (GHS) Index 25 such as South Korea (GHS 9/195), Japan (GHS 21/195), China (GHS 51/195) and Iran (GHS 97/195 respectively.