Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study

Shengjie Lai; Isaac Bogoch; Nick Ruktanonchai; Alexander Watts; Xin Lu; Weizhong Yang; Hongjie Yu; Kamran Khan; Andrew J Tatem

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint travellers from Wuhan that may have needed to be kept in quarantine at the 382 destinations outside of mainland China (Supplementary Table S8) . Thailand, Japan, and Taiwan ranked in the top three, followed by Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Based on an overall infection rate of 1.39% (16/1149; 95% UI: 0.80% -2.25%) in citizens evacuated from Wuhan before Table S8 ). As of February 3 rd , 2020, a significant correlation (r-squared = 0.58, p < 0.001) was seen between the number of imported cases reported in those countries or regions and the risk of importation via travellers defined in our study (Figure 3b ).