Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak

Qinghe Liu; Zhicheng Liu; Junkai Zhu; Yuhao Zhu; Deqiang Li; Zefei Gao; Liuling Zhou; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang

We constructed a transmission dynamics model to infer the epidemiological characteristics and the peak size and trend of COVID-19 based on the existing infectious data and recovered data of various countries or regions. The population of this paper are divided into four main categories based on the SEIR model, i.e. S, E, I and R referring to [15] : the Susceptibles, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered, respectively [16] [17] . In the study of China's epidemic situation, many factors such as Spring Festival, control policies and so on are taken into account, but in contrast, this paper will analyze the heterogeneity of each country or region on the basis of the common spread of infectious diseases. Although these countries have different policies and customs, their basic spread pattern of the epidemic still meets the principle of dynamics [18] . S, the susceptibles, is equal to the total population (N in equation (3.1)) in the research of COVID-19 due to the general susceptibility of the population. The main assumptions of this model are as follows: