Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak

Qinghe Liu; Zhicheng Liu; Junkai Zhu; Yuhao Zhu; Deqiang Li; Zefei Gao; Liuling Zhou; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 18.20038224 doi: medRxiv preprint its high risk of the coronavirus. The peak number of real-time confirmed cases of Italy is predicted to reach 127,283.The trend of COVID-19 in Italy is expanding, though efforts had been taken by the government of Italy. Other 16 countries whose peak values are estimated to reach over 10,000, such as the Turkey, France, Iran, the United Kingdom and Canada, are all in severe situation at present. Australia, Norway, Russia and several other countries are the next worst-hit areas with their peak value approaching 10,000. We collected the peak estimate results of six continents in Table 3 . Oceania has the minimum peak value and there are only two countries in Oceania for our study, the sparse population makes it less severe than other continents. It is estimated that Asia's peak value would reach 184,722 (95% CI: 178,414 -206,180). As of March 28, 2020, the daily increment of confirmed cases only in The United States is 19,821. This also led to an outbreak trend in North America, which is estimated to reach a peak of 420,685 (95% CI: 239,546 -5,788,917) under the current policy intervention. Europe has the highest peak value indicating the severe situation in Europe. South America has a much lower peak value than North America.