Author: Qinghe Liu; Zhicheng Liu; Junkai Zhu; Yuhao Zhu; Deqiang Li; Zefei Gao; Liuling Zhou; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang
Title: Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: adcptyfj_9
Snippet: On March 14, 2020, Li L et al [12] , made a propagation analysis and the wordwide prediction of COVID-19, and they also realized the backward inference of the epidemic starting day. The main results show that the epidemic in South Korea will be basically under control at the end of March, and the inflection day is January 7, before the control the reproductive number is 4.2 and 0.1 after the control. Epidemic size in Italy and Iran will reach 200.....
Document: On March 14, 2020, Li L et al [12] , made a propagation analysis and the wordwide prediction of COVID-19, and they also realized the backward inference of the epidemic starting day. The main results show that the epidemic in South Korea will be basically under control at the end of March, and the inflection day is January 7, before the control the reproductive number is 4.2 and 0.1 after the control. Epidemic size in Italy and Iran will reach 200,000 and 20,000, respectively at the end of March, and the inflection starting day are both on January 13, the reproductive number are in decline from 4.2, 4.0 to 0.1, 0.2. And their work could be a reference to our prediction results.
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