Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China

Qinghe Liu; Zhicheng Liu; Deqiang Li; Zefei Gao; Junkai Zhu; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang

We define the peak value as the peak of I(t), which is the cumulative number of infected cases. After this peak point, the temporary number of cases gradually decrease and the epidemic subsides. We first simulated the epidemic trend of 34 provinces of China, and predicted the peak number of confirmed cases and its arrival time in each area, as shown in figure 2 and 3. On average, the peak number of real-time confirmed cases of Hubei is predicted to reach 63800, and its arrival time is on March 3, 2020. Tibet has both the minimum peak value and the earliest peak arrival time. According to the data up to Feburary 12, 2020, the number of confirmed cases in Tibet is only 1, and there is no suspected patient. On the one hand, it is shown that the transmission speed is very high, on the other hand, the rapid development of traffic caused the rapid development of cross transmission.The predicted peak values of different areas are divided to different intervals, which is listed in table 3. Except for Hubei, there are no other provinces that the peak value is more than 2000. Table 3 distinguishs Hubei Province as a single category to reflect the corresponding relationships and differences. In terms of peak values, Hubei is far higher than other regions. Zhejiang, Guangdong, Henan, Hunan and Chongqing are the places most likely to become the next worst-hit areas, and the relevant departments should pay much attention to them. The peak value of more than 73.5% provinces or regions of China is predicted to be stable within 1000.