Author: Qinghe Liu; Zhicheng Liu; Deqiang Li; Zefei Gao; Junkai Zhu; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang
Title: Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: 5dd89gnm_59
Snippet: It will take about 1.5-2 months from the peak to the end of the epidemic. Due to the people's sense of isolation and safety protection, the return trend will not have a lot of impact on the epidemic, which will continue to show a downward trend after February 10. (4) Based on the data of evacuation and diagnosis, the peak number of patients in Hubei is estimated to be 403481 (95% CI: 143284 -1166936). Assuming that the false-negative rate is 50% .....
Document: It will take about 1.5-2 months from the peak to the end of the epidemic. Due to the people's sense of isolation and safety protection, the return trend will not have a lot of impact on the epidemic, which will continue to show a downward trend after February 10. (4) Based on the data of evacuation and diagnosis, the peak number of patients in Hubei is estimated to be 403481 (95% CI: 143284 -1166936). Assuming that the false-negative rate is 50% and the potential transmission rate is 3-5 times higher than that of the confirmed patients, the real peak number of patients in Hubei is likely to be between 292000-472500. Suppose that the transmission rate of the false negative patient is twice that of the confirmed patient, if the false negative rate decreased by 5% in one week, the peak number of patients will slowed down by 11.62%. If the proportion decreased by 10% in one week, the peak number of patients will decreased by 21.91%, which shows timely detection of false negative population is more effective for epidemic control.
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