Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic estimation-prediction techniques for Covid-19, and a prediction for Stockholm Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 0fmeu4h4_32
Snippet: Finally the time calibration. For this we set the infection fatality risk to f = 0.3% as a guess. As mentioned above it will not change the time calibration more than a week if the true fatality risk is 0.1% or 1%. The 200 case fatalities by March 31 would hence imply that the number of infected three weeks earlier, March 10, equals 200/0.003 = 67 000. We therefore calibrate March 10 to the relative day t at which the cumulative number of infecte.....
Document: Finally the time calibration. For this we set the infection fatality risk to f = 0.3% as a guess. As mentioned above it will not change the time calibration more than a week if the true fatality risk is 0.1% or 1%. The 200 case fatalities by March 31 would hence imply that the number of infected three weeks earlier, March 10, equals 200/0.003 = 67 000. We therefore calibrate March 10 to the relative day t at which the cumulative number of infected equals 67 000 (or as close to as possible). This turns out to be on day t = 31 of the epidemic.
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