Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic prediction methodology for covid-19: estimation and sensitivity considerations Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: hsgzkpg4_12
Snippet: We end this subsetion by pointing out that predictions of the number of infected are very sensitive to the infection fatality risk f . Any error in f carry over to prediction error multiplicatively. In many cases there is often uncertainty in s d , the time between infection and death and of course this duration also varies between individuals. This has the effect that time location of estimates might be off by a week or so, but the estimated num.....
Document: We end this subsetion by pointing out that predictions of the number of infected are very sensitive to the infection fatality risk f . Any error in f carry over to prediction error multiplicatively. In many cases there is often uncertainty in s d , the time between infection and death and of course this duration also varies between individuals. This has the effect that time location of estimates might be off by a week or so, but the estimated numbers remain unchanged.
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